Value of Early Circulating Tumor Cells Dynamics to Estimate Docetaxel Benefit in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Patients

Circulating tumor cell (CTC) enumeration and changes following treatment have been demonstrated to be superior to PSA response in determining mCRPC outcome in patients receiving AR signaling inhibitors but not taxanes. We carried out a pooled analysis of two prospective studies in mCRPC patients treated with docetaxel. CTCs were measured at baseline and 3–6 weeks post treatment initiation. Cox regression models were constructed to compare 6-month radiographical progression-free survival (rPFS), CTCs and PSA changes predicting outcome. Among the subjects, 80 and 52 patients had evaluable baseline and post-treatment CTC counts, respectively. A significant association of higher baseline CTC count with worse overall survival (OS), PFS and time to PSA progression (TTPP) was observed. While CTC response at 3–6 weeks (CTC conversion (from ≥5 to <5 CTCs), CTC30 (≥30% decline in CTC) or CTC0 (decline to 0 CTC)) and 6-month rPFS were significantly associated with OS (all p < 0.005), the association was not significant for PSA30 or PSA50 response. CTC and PSA response were discordant in over 50% of cases, with outcome driven by CTC response in these patients. The c-index values for OS were superior for early CTC changes compared to PSA response endpoints, and similar to 6-month rPFS. Early CTC declines were good predictors of improved outcomes in mCRPC patients treated with docetaxel in this small study, offering a superior and/or earlier estimation of docetaxel benefit in comparison to PSA or rPFS that merits further confirmation in larger studies.