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Get Free AccessReproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Alexander A. Aarts, Joanna E. Anderson, Christopher Anderson, Peter Raymond Attridge, Angela S. Attwood, Jordan Axt, Molly Babel, Štěpán Bahník, Erica Baranski, Michael Barnett‐Cowan, Elizabeth Bartmess, Jennifer S. Beer, Raoul Bell, Heather Bentley, Leah Beyan, Grace Binion, Denny Borsboom, Annick Bosch, Frank A. Bosco, Sara Bowman, Mark J. Brandt, Erin L Braswell, Hilmar Brohmer, Benjamin T. Brown, Kristina A. Brown, Jovita Brüning, Ann Calhoun-Sauls, Shannon Callahan, Elizabeth Chagnon, Jesse Chandler, Christopher R. Chartier, Felix Cheung, Cody D. Christopherson, Linda Cillessen, Russ Clay, Hayley M. D. Cleary, Mark D. Cloud, Michael Conn, Johanna Cohoon, Simon Columbus, Andreas Cordes, Giulio Costantini, Leslie D. Cramblet Alvarez, Ed Cremata, Jan Crusius, Jamie DeCoster, Michelle A. DeGaetano, Nicolás Delia Penna, Bobby Den Bezemer, Marie K. Deserno, Olivia Devitt, Laura Dewitte, David G. Dobolyi, Geneva T. Dodson, M. Brent Donnellan, Ryan Donohue, Rebecca A. Dore, Angela Rachael Dorrough, Anna Dreber, Michelle Dugas, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Kayleigh Easey, Sylvia Eboigbe, Casey Eggleston, Jo Embley, Sacha Epskamp, Timothy M. Errington, Vivien Estel, Frank J. Farach, Jenelle Feather, Anna Fedor, Belén Fernández‐Castilla, Susann Fiedler, James G. Field, Stanka A. Fitneva, Taru Flagan, Amanda L. Forest, Eskil Forsell, Joshua Foster, Michael C. Frank, Rebecca S. Frazier, Heather M. Fuchs, Philip A. Gable, Jeff Galak, Elisa Maria Galliani, Anup Gampa, Sara García, Douglas Gazarian, Elizabeth Gilbert, Roger Giner‐Sorolla, Andreas Glöckner, Lars Goellner, Jin X. Goh, Rebecca Goldberg, Patrick T. Goodbourn, Shauna Gordon-McKeon, Bryan Gorges, Jessie Gorges, J. B. Dobieand J. R. Goss, Jesse Graham (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349(6251), DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4716.
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Type
Article
Year
2015
Authors
100
Datasets
0
Total Files
0
Language
English
Journal
Science
DOI
10.1126/science.aac4716
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