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Get Free Access{We describe a model for estimating past and current infections as well as future deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The model does not use confirmed case numbers and is based instead on recorded numbers of deaths and on the age-specific population distribution. A regularized deconvolution technique is used to infer past infections from recorded deaths. Forecasting is based on a compartmental SIR-type model, combined with a probability distribution for the time from infection to death. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is modelled empirically, based on recent trends in the death rate. The model can also be used to study counterfactual scenarios based on hypothetical NPI policies.
David I. Ketcheson, Hernando Ombao, Paula Moraga, Tarig Ballal, Carlos M. Duarte (2020). Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality. , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972.
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Type
Preprint
Year
2020
Authors
5
Datasets
0
Total Files
0
Language
en
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972
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