Climate change and disturbance interact to alter landscape reflectivity (albedo) in boreal forests across a large latitudinal gradient in Siberia

Boreal forests form the largest terrestrial biome globally. Climate change is expected to induce large changes in vegetation of high latitude ecosystems, but there is considerable uncertainty about where, when, and how those changes will occur. Such vegetation change produces major feedback to the climate system, including by modifying albedo (reflectivity). Our study used the LANDIS-II forest landscape model to project forest dynamics on four representative landscapes (1 M ha) for 280 years into the future under a range of climate scenarios across a broad latitudinal gradient in Siberia. The model estimated the albedo of the vegetation and any snow on each landscape grid-cell through time to quantify surface albedo change in response to climate change and disturbances. We found that the shortening of the snow-covered season (winter) decreased annual average albedo dramatically, and climate change facilitated the invasion of tundra by boreal trees in the northernmost landscape (reducing albedo in all seasons). However, in other landscapes, albedo increased in summer due to disturbances (fire, wind, insects, harvest), eliminating or reducing leaf area in the short-term, and in the mid-term by promoting more reflective forest types (deciduous, light conifers). This increased albedo was somewhat ephemeral and under climate change was overwhelmed by the shortening of the snow-covered season that greatly reduced albedo. We conclude that the primary driver of the overall reflectivity of boreal ecosystems is not vegetation, but rather, the length of the snow-covered season. Because climate change is likely to dramatically shorten the snow season, the concurrent reduction of albedo has the potential to act as a powerful positive feedback for climate change. Managing natural and anthropogenic disturbances may be the only tool with potential to mitigate the reduction of albedo by climate change in boreal ecosystems because management to encourage more reflective forest types has relatively small effect.