Analysis of Shoreline Dynamics and Beach Profile Evolution over More than a Decade: Satellite Image Characterization and Machine Learning Modeling

This study presents a detailed analysis of the morphological evolution of beaches in the Bocagrande sector of Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, over more than a decade, based on periodic monitoring of six beach profiles. The beaches in this area are in bays constrained by headlands and promontories located at both ends of each bay. Changes in shoreline position, dry beach widths, and the surf zone were evaluated using aerial photographs, orthophotos, satellite imagery, and field data, together with sediment size determined through granulometric analysis. The results indicate that the beaches exhibit characteristics of wave-dominated, exposed systems, with sediments classified as fine sand that tend to increase in grain size toward the northern sector of the bay. A cyclical variation in the shoreline was observed, with average retreats and advances ranging from 5 to 10 m, depending on the climatic season. Dry beach widths ranged from 10 to 90 m, decreasing toward the north. Differences in morphology between profiles and shoreline variation are attributed to the climatic season, profile location within the bay, and proximity to a coastal structure and its particular type. Beach profiles were fitted to conceptual equilibrium profile models using traditional equations, which yielded a coefficient of determination of 0.76; when machine learning algorithms were applied, this value improved to 0.99. This study provides an important baseline for future morphological assessments and coastal management efforts in the city and places with similar characteristics, particularly considering ongoing shoreline protection projects.